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Exam setup and repetition
A quick non-thorough repetition of all the great material.
Risk Management (Lecture 1)
Some examples of methods used in risk management, for a more thorough explanation, see Lecture 1.
Casual mapping (Applied example)
(DELAY IN PROJECT!)
/ \
/ \
/ (Poor project outcome)
/ \
/ \
/ \
(Unrealistic schedule estimates) (Lack of skill)
Probability Impact Matrix
(cost) _____________________________
| |xxxxxx|xxxxxx|xxxxxxx|
High | |xxxxxx|xxxxxx|xxxxxxx|
|_______|xxxxxx|xxxxxx|xxxxxxx|
| | | |xxxxxxx|
Significant | | | |xxxxxxx|
|_______|______|______|xxxxxxx|
| | | | |
Moderate | | | | |
|_______|______|______|_______|
| | | | |
Low | | | | |
|_______|______|______|_______|
Low Med Med+ High (probability)
Decision Trees
,_______________ Net Product Value (NPV)
,____________/ (20%) Expansion -100.000 $
/ Extend \ (80%) No Expansion 75.000 $
/ `---------------
/
/
D
\
\
\ ,_______________
`-------------´ (20%) Expansion 250.000 $
Replace \ (80%) No Expansion -50.000 $
`---------------
PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
Expected time (t_e) = (minimum time (a) + 4 * medium time (m) + worst time (b)) / 6 Standard deviation (S) = (worst time (b) - minimum time (a))/6
Activity planning (WIP)
Identifying activities
There are three approaches to identifying the activities or tasks:
Activity based planning (WBS)
- Creating a list of all the activities that the project needs. Can be done by creating a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS, filled with verbs). This involves identifying the main tasks that are needed for the project and then breaking them down into lower-level tasks. Too great depth will result in a large number of small tasks that will be diffcult to manage. Too shallow project provides insufficient detail.
Product-based approach (PBS)
- Consists of producing a Product Breakdown Structure (PBS, filled with nouns) and a Product Flow Diagram (PFD). The PFD idicates for each product which other products are required as inputs. With the help of a PFD you can easily create an ordered list of activities by identifying the order of products and which acitivies are needed for them.
Hybrid approach
- The hybrid approach is a mix of both. Instead of creating a WBS that is based on the projects activities, you create a WBS that is based on the projects products.
GQM (Goal, Question, Metric)
- Conceptual level (goal)
- A goal is defined for an object, for a variety of reasons, with respect to various models of quality, from various points of view and relative to a particular environment.
- Operational level (question)
- A set of questions is used to define models of the object of study and then focuses on that object to characterize the assessment or achievement of a specific goal.
- Quantitative level (metric)
- A set of metrics, based on the models, is associated with every question in order to answer it in a measurable way.
Precedence Networks
Some terms to consider using when describing precedence networks are:
- Float
- The amount of time between two activities which are dependant on eachother. (fråga adde om du inte fattar)
- Earliest Start (ES)
- Earliest Finish (EF)
- Latest Start (LS)
- Latest Finish (LF)
- Critical Path
- The subset of activities which are dependant on eachother with 0 float time.
SPI (Lecture 3)
The deming cycle.
PDSA ÄR EN ONÖDIG FÖRKORTNING
PDSA = Plan Do Study Act
PUMA ÄR EN SVENSK VERSION AV PDSA
PUMA = Planera Utför Mstudera Agera
, - ~ ~ ~ - ,
, ' | ' ,
, | Act ,
, Study ->| | ,
, | v ,
,-------------|-------------,
, ^ | ,
, | |<- Plan ,
, Do | ,
, | , '
' - , _ _ _ , '
- Study - Study/Check/Assess the outcome; measure and report
- Act - Decide on needed changes -> repeat
- Plan - Plan goal & process design/revision to improve results
- Do - Implement plan & measure performance
Resource Allocation (Lecture 4)
A resource includes labour, equipment, materials, space, services etc.
Allocation step by step
- Identify resources needed and create a resource requirements list.
- Identify resource types, resources within a group are interchangeble, and resources between groups are not.
- Allocate resource types to activites, and examine each resource type histogram.
- If resources needed exceeds the available resources at some time, perform resource smoothing.
- Resource histograms, where the first is before resource smoothing. Available resources are the dotted line,
and the required are shown with lines.
Resource need ___ |5| ___ | | |4|....___....|...|...|...|___..... |3|___| |___| |___| | | |2| | | | | | | | |1| | | | | | | | | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | Week
|5|
|4|....___.....___.....___.___.___.
|3|___| |___| |___| | | |
|2| | | | | | | | |
|1| | | | | | | | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
Monitor (Lecture 5)
Earned value analysis
Basics
Earned value analysis is based on assigning a "value" to each task or work, based on the original expenditures forecasts.
- Planned value (PV) or Budgeted cost of work scheduled (BCWS): Original estimate
- Earned value (EV) or Budgeted cost of work performed (BCWP): Work completed this far
- Actual cost (AC) or Actual cost of work performed (ACWS): Actual work performed this far
- Budget at completion (BAC): The budget when the project is done
- Estimate at completion (EAC): Estimated budget at completion, updated as the project progresses
Performance ratios
Value for money.
- Cost performance indicator (CPI) = EV / AC
- Schedule performance indicator (SPI) = EV/PV
- Estimated Actual Cost = BAC / CPI
Example
BAC = 100
Actal cost = 80
|===========> |
EV = 60 ^ ^ PV = 100
- CPI = EV / AC = 60 / 80 = 75 % => over budget
- SPI = EV / PV = 60 / 100 = 60 %
EAC = BAC / CPI = 100 / 0.75 = 133
Cost variance = EV - AC = 60 - 80 = -20
Budget variance = PV - AC = 100 - 80 = 20
Schedule variance = EV - PV = 60 - 100 = -40
Cost Benifit Evaluation (Lecture 6)
- Return on investment (ROI) or also known as Accounting rate of return (ARR) = Net profit / total investment. Also useful for company individual choices or features.
- Net profit:
- total income - total cost
- Payback period:
- time to break even
average annual profit
ROI =---------------------- X 100
total investment
value in year t
NPV =----------------------
(1 + r)^t